The Fight for Florida and the GOP’s Future

As the candidates line up one last time before the Florida voters requesting votes several things will soon come to pass. The most important will be the Republican Party as we know it, and less important the effects of the outcome on all the campaigns.

Rudy Giuliani is likely to fail to gain the majority of the Florida support. He will have to do a very serious evaluation of his chances but I believe he will realize he is far past damage control and promptly drop out. After working so hard in the state, and by all accounts, lose it so badly, you have to think that he has spent all his capital and has nothing left to give.

Rudy let it all ride on the Florida voters hoping they would slingshot his way into Super Tuesday and win the delegate rich states. However, while everyone else was making headlines, good or bad, Giuliani was all but forgotten by the media and the nation. His campaign is the perfect example of “out of sight out of mind.” Let that be the lesson to all future campaigns.

Mike Huckabee for all his gifts and God given talents of speaking and easy dialogue, will not fair much better than Giuliani. He has worked hard promoting the Flat Tax and to abolish the IRS something the people in Florida have heard a lot about from him. Unfortunately, no one is willing to vote for him, at least not enough that will make a difference. There are many voters who are anti-McCain and who are turned off by Huckabee appearing to be a pro-McCain candidate and possible VEEP. That factor may be enough to give Romney the bump he needs. Huckabee will, however, be in better position than Giuliani going into Super Tuesday. He will remain a winning force in a few states. Afterwards though, the final result will be the same as Rudy’s, his White House aspirations will be just as over.

Ron Paul may get a slight bump after Huckabee and Rudy depart from the race. He has the money to go beyond Super Tuesday and frankly, he has to after so many successful money-bombs put on by his supporters. However, he just isn’t in any position to do any real damage. His campaign has proven to be ineffectual. How else can you explain all the money raised and so little to show for it. New Hampshire and Nevada was his test and he failed both.

The two leading candidates, John McCain and Mitt Romney, have seen so many lead changes and statistically even polls that it is nearly impossible to see the winner. Conventional wisdom says that McCain is the marginal favorite and has the edge considering the governors endorsement. Still, you wonder if the GOP only crowd will line up and vote for McCain. Polls show that’s exactly what they plan to do. Which ever one wins the contest will most likely gain the national momentum heading into February 5th and sharpen the focus on the nominee.

If it is indeed McCain who wins this race, than the GOP as we know it, will be no more. It will send a strong message to the base that the establishment is calling the shots. I don’t know how well that will go over with many Republicans. It’s no secret that McCain is loathed by the Republican voters. Remember, last week Mel Martinez “amnesty Mel” endorsed McCain, both in which were outspoken and arrogant supporters of the comprehensive immigration bill — The Kennedy Agents. This is McCain sort of thumbing his nose at the rest of the GOP that held him in such open contempt as recent as last year.

By all conclusions, this is a man who should not be getting the support he has. The New York Times endorsed him which is the absolute wrong message to conservatives, but the absolutely perfect candidate for the Times. He has repeatedly been at odds with greater GOP on many issues, the latest in which appeared to be the straw that broke the Elephants back. He stated that he would not support judges like Samuel Alito “because he appears to wear his conservatism on his sleeve.” What exactly is that suppose to mean? Would he rather have Pelosi and Reid helping him make his decision? We’ve had enough social activism from the bench, what we need is constitutionally sound choices. Does any of that sound familiar? Oh that’s right, Fred Thompson said something along those lines.

It’s things like this that leaves me doubting the future of the GOP. We have been transitory for years now, with no clear set of defining principles anymore, only policies and personalities. The Republican Party is shifting and is quickly losing it’s once undeniable idenity. What we lack is an anchor, someone who can bring us back to its core, its greatness, and once unshakeable confidence. Now we are top-heavy fueled by a few.

Consequently the party it seems is being held together by threads, and each faction threatening to sever the ends. What we don’t need is an event to set it all off. So I’m asking myself, are we really getting ready to send John McCain to the White House?

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