By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

May 4, 2008 — State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) won the May 3 special election in Louisiana’s 6^th congressional district, defeating Louis “Woody” Jenkins (R) by 49,702 votes (49%) to 46,741 (46%). The special election was held to fill the congressional seat vacated by US Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned to enter private business.

Cazayoux’s victory was a major turnaround for the Democrats in a district that had given President Bush 59% in 2004 and Bobby Jindal (R) 56% in the 2007 governor’s race.

It was also a setback for the recently announced strategy of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which was to tie Democratic congressional candidates to the liberal policies of likely presidential nominee Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The NRCC approach is probably the best available tactic for the GOP in this Democratic year. Nevertheless, if it didn’t work in this conservative Deep South district, it is unlikely to bear fruit in very many other areas of the country.

In a statement released Saturday night after the votes were announced, the NRCC Communications Division said, “When Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were introduced into this campaign, Don Cazayoux was leading by a large margin in the polls. Since then, Republicans saturated the Baton Rouge airwaves in an effort to nationalize this contest and made the election about the real life consequences of a Barack Obama presidency and a continued Pelosi-run Democratic Congress. In that time, Republicans made substantial ground.”

The GOP strategy will get another test on May 13 in Mississippi’s 1^st Congressional District, where the GOP is following a similar campaign strategy in the runoff between Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R) for another vacant seat formerly held by a Republican, Roger Wicker, now a US Senator.

The Cazayoux victory, however momentous a change in this state’s voting habits, was not unexpected. A likeable young lawyer with a moderate record in the legislature, Cazayoux led in opinion polls as well as in the money chase. Cazayoux raised $810,000 to Jenkin’s $490,000. In addition, according to The Hill newspaper, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which initially recruited Cazayoux to oppose Baker, spent some $920,000 on the race, to $440,000 spent by NRCC.

Jenkins also brought some personal baggage to the contest. A long-time combative conservative leader, especially on hot-button social issues, he has fierce partisans on the right, but has also accumulated a number of foes, especially among the state’s more moderate upscale Republicans. This may have been the source of the small but significant number — 3,718 (4%) — of votes cast for Ashley Casey, a no-party candidate and a former aide to last year’s millionaire gubernatorial candidate John Georges. Casey had said that if elected, she would caucus with the Republicans. Had these votes been cast for Jenkins, he would have won.

Two other minor candidates also received votes in the race. Peter Aranyosi, a no-party candidate, had 448 (0.4%); and Randall Hayes of the rightist Constitution Party received 402 (0.4%).

In the 1^st District (Metairie, etc.), the GOP got a consolation prize, though not an unexpected one. Republican state Sen. Steve Scalise (R) easily defeated Democrat Gilda Reed, a University of New Orleans psychology professor with labor union backing for the seat vacated by former US Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) following his election as governor. Scalise had 33,867 votes (75%), Reed 10,142 (22%), R. A. “Skip” Galen 786 (2%) and Anthony “Tony G” Gentile 280 (1%). Scalise exceeded President Bush’s 71% in this district in 2004.